Leonardo expects further growth and focuses on global security to balance its defence revenues
Exploiting the current growth in defence acquisitions, Leonardo numbers are on the increase and the trend is there to stay for the years ahead, however in the long term the company looks at the global security market to balance a potential decrease in defence orders, that might follow the hoped-for end of many of the conflicts currently underway
The order intake data are certainly the key parameter to forecast a company evolution, and the estimated values for Leonardo are on the rise. It is to note that all following data do not include the IDV consolidation, which should happen on March 18th, according to what was announced at the presentation. The 142 billion cumulative order expectation is approximately 24 billion more than the forecast we had last year in the updated 2025-29 plan,” Roberto Cingolani, Leonardo CEO, said during the company 2026 Industrial Plan presentation, after describing the successful transformation done in the 2023-2025 timeframe. Looking at numbers compared to the 23.8 billion Euro of 2025, the trend sees a constant growth up to 32 billion in 2030, with a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 6.1%, 0.3% more than the 2025-2029 plan. “The high order intake is based on a portfolio which is absolutely symmetric, we don’t have spikes or weak areas. It is rather solid. There is no concentrated exposure in any single country or single customer. And I think we are a unique supplier that can offer comprehensive defences and the security solutions supported by specific strategic partnerships that you know very well in our joint ventures,” the CEO stated.
Revenues estimates have also increased, expected cumulative revenues in the 2026-2030 period being up to around 126 billon, some 20 billion more than the previous year estimates, reaching 30 billion in 2030 compared to the 19.5 billon of 2025, with a CAGR of 9%, +2% over that of the previous plan. Cingolani underlined how this improvement is due to growth in deliveries as well as an improvement in services
Looking at graphics, in 2030 EBITA will be more than double that of 2025, from 1.75 to 3.59 billion Euro. Here too estimates for 2026-203 exceed those of last year plan, 14 billion versus 11 billion, CAGR rising from 13.1% to 15.5%. “Here I just want to stress that we are very committed in making efficiency and profitability higher. That was the mantra we had in the last three years,” Cingolani said, adding that “doubling the profitability in these five years means that margins are growing at faster pace than revenues. And, of course, we are very focused on the management, efficiency across all individuals and increased service markets.”
The same increase is valid for the FOCF (Free Operating Cash Flow), which overcome 1 billion Euro for the first time in 2025, estimates for 20230 being 2.06 billion, once again with considerable improvements in terms of absolute value and CAGR over the five-year cumulative data. “We double cash generation by the high profitability. We must ensure continuity in the investment and in new technology,” the CEO said.
“The upside will come from the innovation capability on top of the new technology that we are developing. We must do everything we can to make sure that we can recover a very healthy management and a very healthy company in terms of profitability and in terms of financial results. I know that this cannot be done in three years, maybe in six, but for sure the company is fully committed, and I believe that the numbers already show that there was some important impact of our actions. However, I think the best should still come,” Roberto Cingolani stated concluding the analysis of the financial data forecast for the 2026-2030 period.
In 2030 Leonardo should overcome the 75,000 marks in terms of headcount, a 12% increase that adds to the 31% increase in the 2023-2025 period. Some 28,000 new personnel will be hired, which will give a net increase of over 8,000 people that will of course contribute the average age. Of those 28,000 30% will be women, 55% will be under 30, and 70 % will be STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics). Considering the existing skills gap, the Leonardo Academy will be a key element in creating the future-proof workforce, enhancing talent onboarding. The evolution will be tangible in job profiles and skills, the new hires being mostly AI & human-AI orchestrators, Cyber & Digital Trust architects, Quantum engineers, Edge Computing architects, and Space, Satellite, Communications and Electronics experts.
Leonardo is investing yearly over 3 billion Euro in Research and Development. A new organizational model directly steered by the CEO as global CTO was put in place to ensure the vision is coherently and timely delivered; we should not forget that Cingolani has a degree and a PhD in Physics, and in the 2019-2025 timeframe has been Leonardo Chief Technology & Innovation Officer.
In its presentation the CEO mentioned several R&D focus areas. In the space domain, four main subjects were mentioned; optical inter-satellite links for low-Earth orbit secure communications; Perovskite-based solar cells; thermal control for lunar exploration and battery management system; and space robotics for in-orbit servicing. Switching to the air domain, three were the bullets: quantum photon statistics imaging; high-energy laser weaponisation onboard light platforms; and orchestration of robotic swarms. In land and maritime domains three other R&D topics were mentioned: disruptive materials and processes for ballistic armour protection; entanglement-based networks for GNSS-denied clock synchronisation; and integration and interoperability of robotics autonomous systems into C2 stations. Finally in the cyber domain Leonardo will concentrate its R&D efforts in the hacking laboratory. A continuous cycle linking production and research is being established.
Increasing manpower as well as production capabilities in a moment that sees the demand for defence systems on the rise due to the geopolitical situation is a must if a company wants to exploit its potential. However, looking at the future, when the defence market inevitably shrinks once, hopefully, tensions will lower, the focus will have to shift towards a different sector, global security. Hybrid threats do not target only defence infrastructures and assets; in fact, even now in the Gulf one of the most powerful “weapons” is the control of the Strait of Hormuz due its impact on energy availability and, therefore, cost. Agriculture, energy, transportation, financial services, sensible installations, water reserves and distribution systems, desalination plants are already being targeted in the Middle East, and many more.
As an example, Leonardo CEO mentioned losses linked to cybercrime versus global security spending; in 2020 losses amounted to 1 trillion US$ per year versus 0.4 trillion US$ spending, however a forecast for 2030 sees an increase in losses up to 1 trillion per month, 12 times more, while spending will grow to 1 trillion per year, 2.5 times increase. As a term of comparison, the Ukraine war is costing 0.15 trillion US$ per year. “There’s a huge market there. What is the business model here? Cybercrime was just an example. There are many others,” Roberto Cingolani said. Protecting, detecting, responding, and recovering, protecting meaning first persistent monitoring. “The more you watch, the more you observe, the more you predict, then you must detect the problem. Predictive analytics and threats identification,” the CEO explained, adding that this is similar to missile defence, which is based on threat analysis and weapon assignment, the latter being replaced by solution assignment.
Then, if it is a cyber-crime, the answer is cyber security, if it is an earthquake, it will be drones and helicopters, launch systems. “So, you have to be ready at any level, in any domain,” global security requiring dual-use, multi-domain tools. Markets are huge; crop monitoring and field health assessment in agriculture have an estimated global market in 2030 worth over 40 billion, the European market accounting for 13 billion, while prevention to response and recovery to weather-related threats and environmental disasters will have a market worth over 350 billion, 55 billion in Europe. Leonardo is focusing on identifying and structuring multiple global security use cases in the global security arena, to propose valuable solutions that will help maintain the group increase, compensating possible reduction in the defence business.
Graphics and photos courtesy Leonardo
